Online ISSN: 2519-9730 | Print ISSN: 2523-0565
Volume 6 Number 5 September 2021
Macroeconomic Effects on Stock Market Returns in NigeriaPages: 99-109
Authors: Dr. Ekpete, Marshall Simon, Dr. Kenn-Ndubuisi, Juliet Ifechi*
The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic effects on stock market returns in Nigeria employing the CBN annual time series data spanning from 1985-2019. The study applied unit root test, auto-regressive distributed Lag and granger causality tests to investigate the relationship between all share index and interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate. The unit root tests results for stationarity revealed that the entire variables are reliable for economic decisions. The findings of the study revealed that interest rate was negative and not significantly related with the all share index; also inflation rate was negative and not significantly related with the all share index while exchange rate was positive and significantly related with the all share index. The granger causality result revealed Uni-directional causality which implies no causality. This study recommends that macroeconomic factors should be adequately managed by the Central Bank of Nigeria with the view to promoting investors confidence in the stock market.
Impact of Public Debt on Inflation and Unemployment in Nigeria: An ARDL Vector Error Correction ModelPages: 91-98
Authors: Mukhtar Shuaibu*, Husayn Mahmud Muhammad, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi, Umar Garba Gwazawa
Debt is an important source of government funds in developed and developing countries. In developed countries, debt is an important source of money for bridging the gap between government revenues and expenditures. This paper measures the impact of public debt on inflation and unemployment in Nigeria during the period 1985 to 2020. It uses annual data of 36 years range to conduct various types of econometric tests. It uses Autoregressive Distributive Lag model (ARDL) Error Correction Model (ECM) for the analysis of the data. Unit root tests and Granger causality tests were also conducted to test the efficacy and predictive capability of the model. The findings of the study show that long run relationship exists between public debt and unemployment in Nigeria. It shows that increase in public debt causes more unemployment, but that external debt causes more unemployment than domestic debt. But the results of cointegration analysis show absence of relationship between public debt and inflation. The paper recommends reduction in public debt and if at all government must borrow, then it shall give priority to domestic debt over foreign debt.